Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-01-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda71a33adbdc6822de06ad9692c89323ba63347094390f8fa289295f6f08bc4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 64c | 2,614$1,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.06 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 18c | 2,331$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.56 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 62c | 2,133$1,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.02 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…55c5backed Yes | 40c | 1,807$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.56 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 24c | 1,804$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.7 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 975.48$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.86 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 24c | 779.19$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.65 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Yes | 39c | 569.35$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.4 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 8c | 444.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe09c…f300backed Yes | 39c | 425.9$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed No | 61c | 328.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.96 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 40c | 324.15$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.66 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 28c | 300$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 61c | 227.45$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Yes | 39c | 170$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Yes | 39c | 155.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 39c | 153.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Yes | 39c | 151$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 32c | 141.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f9…3f4fbacked Yes | 40c | 123.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaffc…fab4backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 38c | 96.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Yes | 38c | 95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Yes | 38c | 89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Yes | 36c | 84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…b213backed Yes | 15c | 73.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Yes | 38c | 72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 67c | 71.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed No | 62c | 51.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 39c | 45.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 72c | 40.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed No | 65c | 37.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed No | 64c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed No | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870f…08ebbacked No | 64c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed No | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…53f7backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…e5f5backed No | 61c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed No | 61c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8802…91d6backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked No | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…8137backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…7d27backed No | 62c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed No | 62c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-01-30?this page
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Hannover 96 end in a draw?No won
- Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-01-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.