Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Hannover 96 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fc73ee0e5da267dd566e68af4569a8f8db7ca4929e56342e2fdf5c57b526868
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 1c | 2,970$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 27c | 2,679$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.2 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 1,851$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.29 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 1,536$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.51 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 78c | 913.17$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.44 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed No | 73c | 395$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.65 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 76c | 327.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.39 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 58c | 324.78$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.55 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 15c | 269.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Yes | 30c | 266.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Yes | 23c | 260$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Yes | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 73c | 202.75$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Yes | 26c | 188.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Yes | 53c | 187.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Yes | 26c | 178$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Yes | 27c | 151.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x858d…9d9fbacked Yes | 24c | 121.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 74c | 101$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 78c | 99.35$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes | 27c | 93.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed No | 74c | 89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d11…0c08backed Yes | 21c | 88.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Yes | 26c | 68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Yes | 26c | 67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…9f00backed No | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 73c | 36.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 73c | 35.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…8dc3backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 75c | 13.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Hannover 96 end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-01-30?No won
- Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-01-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.