Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda7cebe83d55eedd3685b356b0d27d0100839d41a2d395e94cae8fb2973b9bc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Amaru Gamingof TeamDk, Amaru Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed TeamDk | 14c | 1,440$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Amaru Gaming | 60c | 1,144$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.48 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…8386backed TeamDk | 48c | 1,046$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.28 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -13.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Amaru Gaming | 57c | 825.56$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.05 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed TeamDk | 35c | 712$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.15 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked TeamDk | 40c | 709.89$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.47 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Amaru Gaming | 52c | 653.05$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.45 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Amaru Gaming | 68c | 566.32$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.35 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Amaru Gaming | 66c | 499.99$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf346…1b8ebacked Amaru Gaming | 65c | 454.13$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.1 | 224 | 38.8%87 W · 137 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed TeamDk | 41c | 409.35$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.72 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbd…bcb5backed TeamDk | 50c | 402.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 140 | 30.7%43 W · 97 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…102abacked TeamDk | 37c | 350$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked TeamDk | 44c | 327.3$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Amaru Gaming | 50c | 289.26$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.63 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked TeamDk | 32c | 251.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.33 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed TeamDk | 37c | 223.34$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Amaru Gaming | 62c | 186.37$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed TeamDk | 40c | 183$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 280 | 44.3%124 W · 156 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a40…f518backed Amaru Gaming | 61c | 161.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 154 | 37%57 W · 97 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…783fbacked TeamDk | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Amaru Gaming | 60c | 148.39$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.51 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed TeamDk | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…c5b4backed TeamDk | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Amaru Gaming | 61c | 98.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Amaru Gaming | 59c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c73…e6cebacked Amaru Gaming | 60c | 83.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7d…a286backed TeamDk | 38c | 63.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x810b…0848backed Amaru Gaming | 61c | 49.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe350…e494backed Amaru Gaming | 68c | 44.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed TeamDk | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 378 | 51.1%193 W · 185 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…77a2backed Amaru Gaming | 61c | 32.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: TeamDk vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: TeamDk vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsAmaru Gaming won
- Dota 2: TeamDk vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 WinnerAmaru Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.