Golf · resolved market
Will Michael Thorbjornsen lead the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship following the first round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda852bf44b499995dbe26edbcf81417af958992d023dd4c9e913fb7f84fae282
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Golf | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Yes | 58c | 28,409$16,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,971.56 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed No | 38c | 17,733$6,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,790 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 55c | 8,435$4,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,639.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 64c | 5,516$3,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,550 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a7…ecb7backed Yes | 22c | 5,146$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,991.48 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +123.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Yes | 29c | 989.12$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…f595backed No | 77c | 909.09$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 2c | 630$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 599.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 295 | 3.7%11 W · 284 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 10c | 510.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb379…0a55backed Yes | 17c | 79.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Michael Thorbjornsen lead the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship following the first round?this page
- Will Jake Knapp lead the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship following the first round?No won
- Will Jordan Spieth lead the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship following the first round?No won
- Will Kurt Kitayama lead the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship following the first round?No won
- Will Michael Kim lead the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship following the first round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.