MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdacdf9dea81fe148bbd82bec114c58507b711a2719c379c5e84641cf3d553fef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 7,699$3,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,956.67 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Texas Rangers | 48c | 5,776$2,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,003.66 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed Texas Rangers | 48c | 1,654$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.9 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Texas Rangers | 49c | 1,644$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.44 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20e2…667fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 1,363$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.6 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Texas Rangers | 50c | 1,057$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.5 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Texas Rangers | 49c | 982.5$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.08 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 871.86$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.65 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Texas Rangers | 49c | 345$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.95 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Texas Rangers | 49c | 302.76$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.19 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Texas Rangers | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Texas Rangers | 50c | 116.14$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 100.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 95.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Texas Rangers | 59c | 95.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 64.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Texas Rangers | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ab…a3a7backed Texas Rangers | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 45.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Texas Rangers | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eff…531fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Texas Rangers | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.