Tennis · resolved market
Brisbane International: Elena Rybakina vs Paula Badosa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb273b0033b0eaa9c8a7d6f6d1e5e67def6daa6cdeefb17eadc21402a5978f8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rybakinaof Rybakina, Badosa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3818…7713backed Badosa | 19c | 6,400$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Badosa | 22c | 4,598$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.2 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df4…8ca6backed Badosa | 19c | 2,900$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Badosa | 20c | 2,759$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.95 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Badosa | 18c | 2,044$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.28 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Rybakina | 80c | 1,478$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.54 | 872 | 51.1%446 W · 426 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Badosa | 18c | 1,401$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.51 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…53b3backed Badosa | 38c | 1,316$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…a55dbacked Rybakina | 75c | 1,250$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.5 | 229 | 65.9%151 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Badosa | 11c | 1,191$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.21 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e13…670bbacked Rybakina | 78c | 1,020$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.79 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Badosa | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…9168backed Badosa | 20c | 922.47$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.45 | 375 | 40.8%153 W · 222 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Badosa | 18c | 588$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.52 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Badosa | 21c | 543.73$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.71 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Rybakina | 62c | 365.23$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.75 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Badosa | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Rybakina | 76c | 276.8$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.68 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Rybakina | 70c | 270.79$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.24 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rybakina | 74c | 241.08$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.73 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Badosa | 32c | 202.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.89 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee1…fcf5backed Badosa | 15c | 190.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…b752backed Badosa | 14c | 189.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…0a16backed Badosa | 12c | 128$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 270 | 58.1%157 W · 113 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rybakina | 77c | 119.68$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Badosa | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…3750backed Badosa | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f27…781dbacked Rybakina | 77c | 86.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 76cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Rybakina | 77c | 77.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Badosa | 22c | 75.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Rybakina | 73c | 71.82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Badosa | 22c | 65.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Badosa | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Badosa | 25c | 51.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rybakina | 74c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Rybakina | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Rybakina | 71c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Badosa | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc11d…6680backed Rybakina | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Rybakina | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Rybakina | 66c | 30.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked Rybakina | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500c…883cbacked Rybakina | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Rybakina | 76c | 15.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f17…9ab3backed Rybakina | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brisbane International: Elena Rybakina vs Paula Badosathis page
- Rybakina vs. Badosa: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Rybakina vs BadosaRybakina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.