Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Michelsen (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb42a786d439a8bf09ef49f3e99e4601c036c3f9e6bee9a264da4e6bfd5f81d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michelsenof Fritz, Michelsen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Michelsen | 55c | 959.66$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.55 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa65…b0bbbacked Fritz | 45c | 666.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Fritz | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 718 | 57.7%414 W · 304 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Michelsen | 42c | 495.92$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.85 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Fritz | 40c | 375.52$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.21 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Michelsen | 41c | 375$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.25 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Michelsen | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.05 | 465 | 51.2%238 W · 227 L | -23.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Fritz | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 509 | 52.1%265 W · 244 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x877b…fa0bbacked Fritz | 54c | 226.91$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.53 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…969bbacked Michelsen | 56c | 199.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 124 | 39.5%49 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…e0e5backed Fritz | 77c | 104$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 262 | 63%165 W · 97 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x280f…ad6abacked Michelsen | 60c | 83.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Fritz | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda62…f654backed Fritz | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Michelsen | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Fritz | 55c | 20.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 125 | 61.6%77 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Fritz | 55c | 18.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Michelsen (+1.5)this page
- Fritz vs. Michelsen: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Fritz vs. Michelsen: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Mubadala Citi DC Open: Taylor Fritz vs Alex MichelsenTaylor Fritz won
- Set 1 Winner: Fritz vs MichelsenFritz won
- Set 2 Winner: Fritz vs MichelsenMichelsen won
- Set Handicap: Michelsen (-1.5) vs Fritz (+1.5)Fritz won
- Taylor Fritz vs. Alex Michelsen: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.