Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 4 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb52a216556a4f4166c33bd3fc628678a14f83eb93ef76498a90b26f2fc84b5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof Estar Backs, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dd3…6c9abacked Team Nemesis | 50c | 1,195$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ed…1ea1backed Estar Backs | 46c | 1,105$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.33 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Estar Backs | 47c | 1,009$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.13 | 134 | 56%75 W · 59 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Nemesis | 68c | 961$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.27 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5809…9868backed Estar Backs | 23c | 900$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Team Nemesis | 67c | 634.59$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.59 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Estar Backs | 49c | 563.34$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.83 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25c6…dcacbacked Team Nemesis | 53c | 538.79$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.03 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Nemesis | 54c | 469.14$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.33 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff4…d731backed Estar Backs | 31c | 414.48$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.17 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe3…ca9dbacked Team Nemesis | 57c | 353.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.82 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Estar Backs | 4c | 251$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Team Nemesis | 80c | 223.45$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4704…515ebacked Team Nemesis | 49c | 201.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.98 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Nemesis | 54c | 191.94$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.34 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Estar Backs | 57c | 175.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Estar Backs | 52c | 155$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Team Nemesis | 55c | 150.79$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.63 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Team Nemesis | 48c | 137.12$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Estar Backs | 31c | 105.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Estar Backs | 33c | 100.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Estar Backs | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a40…f518backed Estar Backs | 52c | 91.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 154 | 37%57 W · 97 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Estar Backs | 31c | 86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 155 | 36.1%56 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Team Nemesis | 80c | 77.81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x646a…cd90backed Estar Backs | 59c | 73.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -5.8wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Estar Backs | 21c | 48.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed Estar Backs | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3e…1316backed Team Nemesis | 80c | 28.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Nemesis | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 4 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsTeam Nemesis won
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 WinnerEstar Backs won
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 3 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.