Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e77b32e2b9b6c7db3846a6694b10f4bae5d7c5bde7f106c0f3a392834751619
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof Estar Backs, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Team Nemesis | 67c | 1,920$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.39 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92c…dd9abacked Estar Backs | 32c | 1,507$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.08 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd525…1815backed Estar Backs | 37c | 1,371$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.35 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Team Nemesis | 76c | 913.14$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.74 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Estar Backs | 35c | 682.98$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.3 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Estar Backs | 48c | 640.11$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.73 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd3…6c9abacked Team Nemesis | 54c | 584.06$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.06 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Team Nemesis | 64c | 582.96$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.36 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26c7…668abacked Team Nemesis | 62c | 488$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Estar Backs | 46c | 429.34$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.53 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…4bbabacked Estar Backs | 22c | 399.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f3…0c20backed Team Nemesis | 45c | 396.44$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.04 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Estar Backs | 45c | 366.66$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.83 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf346…1b8ebacked Estar Backs | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 224 | 38.8%87 W · 137 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Team Nemesis | 55c | 350$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…dca3backed Team Nemesis | 74c | 348.13$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.58 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Estar Backs | 30c | 335.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Estar Backs | 27c | 303.96$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.57 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…1691backed Estar Backs | 18c | 299.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Estar Backs | 27c | 299.13$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.97 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed Team Nemesis | 59c | 282.21$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.75 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Estar Backs | 42c | 270.69$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Team Nemesis | 52c | 260.75$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.75 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…441bbacked Team Nemesis | 77c | 259.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Estar Backs | 40c | 243.13$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed Estar Backs | 40c | 241.9$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 204 | 42.2%86 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Team Nemesis | 67c | 223.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Team Nemesis | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Estar Backs | 59c | 182$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.38 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…cfb9backed Team Nemesis | 56c | 142$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa7…736ebacked Estar Backs | 59c | 140$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc29c…1e43backed Team Nemesis | 56c | 132.53$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.13 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab4…564fbacked Estar Backs | 55c | 108.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…dc5abacked Estar Backs | 37c | 105.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Team Nemesis | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 256 | 39.5%101 W · 155 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…3fbdbacked Estar Backs | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 151 | 67.5%102 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…0d8abacked Team Nemesis | 71c | 96.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 269 | 58.7%158 W · 111 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…84b4backed Estar Backs | 44c | 96.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec5…465abacked Estar Backs | 54c | 92.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…b98abacked Estar Backs | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Estar Backs | 27c | 76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…5dd3backed Estar Backs | 46c | 73.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…2e20backed Estar Backs | 39c | 69.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…93b0backed Team Nemesis | 45c | 66.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 122 | 60.7%74 W · 48 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Estar Backs | 30c | 60.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Team Nemesis | 44c | 59.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…c849backed Estar Backs | 29c | 58.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 156 | 42.9%67 W · 89 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Estar Backs | 58c | 53.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed Team Nemesis | 71c | 50.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…e042backed Team Nemesis | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df3…b8bebacked Team Nemesis | 72c | 45.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a5…0a49backed Team Nemesis | 44c | 39.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…f1d6backed Team Nemesis | 51c | 39.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…e54abacked Estar Backs | 58c | 34.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Estar Backs | 32c | 32.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6926…ce5dbacked Estar Backs | 37c | 32.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce1…49c7backed Team Nemesis | 71c | 26.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…f40dbacked Team Nemesis | 51c | 25.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 447 | 71.1%318 W · 129 L | +27.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Estar Backs | 52c | 23.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…e8debacked Team Nemesis | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04d…90fdbacked Team Nemesis | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd3…c376backed Team Nemesis | 72c | 17.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…1bfebacked Team Nemesis | 64c | 16.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed Team Nemesis | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 WinnerEstar Backs won
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 3 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 4 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.