Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fdaa1bd5fefcd9d11663a0c2d2aba6a33b9d01dcbca6a8f6ce25a5801e30368
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof Estar Backs, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3e5…519dbacked Team Nemesis | 55c | 1,627$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.03 | 127 | 64.6%82 W · 45 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Estar Backs | 50c | 1,106$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Estar Backs | 36c | 788.72$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.36 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked Team Nemesis | 60c | 745.22$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.69 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Estar Backs | 40c | 652.74$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.62 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ed…1ea1backed Estar Backs | 53c | 630.07$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.9 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25c6…dcacbacked Team Nemesis | 49c | 487.9$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.9 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb888…b15bbacked Estar Backs | 47c | 425.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd525…1815backed Team Nemesis | 49c | 416.75$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.31 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Team Nemesis | 55c | 391.93$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.77 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Estar Backs | 56c | 349.29$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.7 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Team Nemesis | 43c | 290.97$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.85 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Estar Backs | 39c | 260.1$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a40…f518backed Estar Backs | 53c | 258.48$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 154 | 37%57 W · 97 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…c5b4backed Team Nemesis | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Estar Backs | 41c | 232.17$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.19 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Estar Backs | 34c | 230.67$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.33 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2495…28f5backed Team Nemesis | 59c | 225.07$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Estar Backs | 21c | 204.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…6bfebacked Estar Backs | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Estar Backs | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 213 | 33.3%71 W · 142 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…4bbabacked Estar Backs | 36c | 199.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf49a…8981backed Team Nemesis | 50c | 150.73$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.73 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1863…6174backed Estar Backs | 57c | 150$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 304 | 60.2%183 W · 121 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…dca3backed Estar Backs | 67c | 149.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Team Nemesis | 46c | 147.83$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.83 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Estar Backs | 59c | 145.64$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.27 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Estar Backs | 45c | 133.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Estar Backs | 15c | 131$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…d8c0backed Team Nemesis | 46c | 129.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed Estar Backs | 28c | 126$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ac…e2a8backed Team Nemesis | 43c | 113.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2b…a9e4backed Team Nemesis | 54c | 96.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…48efbacked Team Nemesis | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df3…b8bebacked Team Nemesis | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6b…3962backed Team Nemesis | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3d…51b8backed Team Nemesis | 57c | 57.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…54e8backed Estar Backs | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Team Nemesis | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +72%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb441…f757backed Team Nemesis | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsTeam Nemesis won
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 WinnerEstar Backs won
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 3 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 4 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.