Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2025-11-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb5324b89d36f70ad85bf079860ac5438c18caede1c4a1a55511a92b7f5b2b33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 58c | 40,000$23,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,800 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 42c | 39,881$16,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,749.97 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked No | 47c | 1,900$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Yes | 53c | 1,132$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.08 | 78 | 37.2%29 W · 49 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 53c | 617.92$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.42 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…491dbacked Yes | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.82 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 46cpaid | +91%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 52c | 284.75$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.68 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 14c | 239.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 61c | 208.56$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.22 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 60c | 160.69$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.41 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Yes | 53c | 140$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 43c | 135.83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 150 | 35.3%53 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5275…7ddabacked Yes | 57c | 81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed No | 43c | 81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…9dd6backed Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ed…892ebacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…a98bbacked Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…22b8backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbd…e9d2backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2025-11-30?this page
- Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2025-11-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.