Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Shapovalov vs Marozsan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb5e4241afbb3a4e5111fed68e65f63240f61601cb5a06d052fc3aaed628c0ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shapovalovof Shapovalov, Marozsan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92f5…13e5backed Marozsan | 53c | 299.85$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.92 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.8wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Shapovalov | 47c | 260.32$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.59 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…5018backed Marozsan | 60c | 260.27$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.16 | 208 | 44.2%92 W · 116 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Marozsan | 60c | 216.08$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.46 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Shapovalov | 47c | 205.96$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.16 | 234 | 57.3%134 W · 100 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda74…1ab0backed Marozsan | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 945 | 49.6%469 W · 476 L | -23.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…fe43backed Shapovalov | 52c | 183.03$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.86 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Shapovalov | 52c | 180.28$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.74 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…8c21backed Marozsan | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Shapovalov | 40c | 166.67$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Shapovalov | 49c | 165.67$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.83 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Marozsan | 60c | 162.67$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Shapovalov | 51c | 125.38$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 1,106 | 50.3%556 W · 550 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Shapovalov | 49c | 114.08$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 653 | 46.4%303 W · 350 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Marozsan | 53c | 110.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 825 | 60.5%499 W · 326 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…c9b6backed Marozsan | 62c | 106.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6150…8a24backed Marozsan | 53c | 93.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Shapovalov | 45c | 87.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 265 | 48.7%129 W · 136 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Shapovalov | 41c | 59.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Marozsan | 45c | 55.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 267 | 46.1%123 W · 144 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Shapovalov | 44c | 54.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ad…064ebacked Marozsan | 50c | 50.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | -16.6wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Marozsan | 61c | 44.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 269 | 51.3%138 W · 131 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…4968backed Shapovalov | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Marozsan | 35c | 41.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…a1d0backed Marozsan | 51c | 37.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Shapovalov | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 218 | 45.9%100 W · 118 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc104…5faabacked Shapovalov | 43c | 29.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd123…8494backed Marozsan | 52c | 25.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…51dbbacked Marozsan | 62c | 19.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Shapovalov vs Marozsanthis page
- BMW Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Fabian MarozsanDenis Shapovalov won
- Denis Shapovalov vs. Fabian Marozsan: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Marozsan (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5)Shapovalov won
- Shapovalov vs. Marozsan: Match O/U 22.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.