La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Madrid beat Celta Vigo?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb8f50e95c46bbfb9f58d1049efaefd2005f840e146aadf1e3b7117c05407138
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x571c…c16abacked Yes | 76c | 13,079$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,078.99 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 24c | 12,519$2,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,947.54 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 26c | 4,369$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.19 | 350 | 54%189 W · 161 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…7470backed Yes | 75c | 1,737$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82c…9b0cbacked Yes | 73c | 1,411$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 77c | 1,365$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.4 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +28%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed No | 27c | 1,295$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.7 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 27c | 1,117$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.67 | 432 | 55.6%240 W · 192 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed No | 28c | 1,071$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 72c | 1,029$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.69 | 278 | 54.7%152 W · 126 L | +20.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3def…08b4backed Yes | 72c | 829.67$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Yes | 73c | 767.12$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 12c | 600$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked No | 28c | 415.48$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 28c | 378.64$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.29 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 28c | 325$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.89 | 290 | 53.4%155 W · 135 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 72c | 304.33$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.21 | 202 | 55%111 W · 91 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 27c | 242$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 276 | 52.5%145 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked No | 27c | 238$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 197 | 51.8%102 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…713abacked Yes | 72c | 228.88$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 27c | 199.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 255 | 51.4%131 W · 124 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 28c | 196$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 144 | 62.5%90 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52c…2720backed Yes | 72c | 138.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16c…57d6backed Yes | 74c | 135.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd483…756dbacked Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 27c | 113.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Yes | 74c | 93.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked No | 27c | 85.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…7400backed Yes | 73c | 63.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x163c…2af1backed Yes | 72c | 60.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379f…bd87backed Yes | 72c | 54.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…d133backed Yes | 72c | 47.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Yes | 73c | 39.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb571…effdbacked Yes | 74c | 35.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81c7…8b51backed Yes | 72c | 34.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked Yes | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +6.5wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05e2…5aa2backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Yes | 72c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d1…eb66backed Yes | 73c | 23.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…ac8dbacked Yes | 76c | 18.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Madrid beat Celta Vigo?this page
- Will Celta Vigo beat Real Madrid?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.