Champions League · resolved market
Will Red Star Belgrade win on 2025-08-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbf27a95201786597e21e80a1cbfdf452cf7d70e25f74b225c8b3d2e6a81a9e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78f6…317cbacked No | 36c | 565$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +117%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…3301backed No | 37c | 535$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…2353backed No | 37c | 465$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda86…8796backed No | 36c | 430$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 37cpaid | +174%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe409…a15fbacked Yes | 64c | 380$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…8695backed Yes | 63c | 325$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…abbabacked Yes | 63c | 310$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72e7…589ebacked Yes | 64c | 305$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f1edbacked Yes | 63c | 220$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c05…d72fbacked Yes | 64c | 185$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 32c | 161.68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebc…17c5backed Yes | 63c | 145$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39ea…f75bbacked Yes | 69c | 130.43$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…3251backed Yes | 64c | 130$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed No | 35c | 92.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8a…ebd9backed Yes | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked No | 36c | 81.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…0495backed No | 37c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Yes | 63c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0f…addabacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54b…3859backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 41c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 59c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbc…8e01backed Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 128 | 54.7%70 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Red Star Belgrade win on 2025-08-12?this page
- Will Lech Poznan win on 2025-08-12?No won
- Will Red Star Belgrade vs. Lech Poznan end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.