Mls · resolved market
New York Red Bulls vs. New England Revolution: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc0260d8800daee4b78ebcbaf11f8e9215e862e7f424ca547064ed37bf9c5952
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 78c | 1,472$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.95 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 22c | 1,456$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.02 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 43c | 888$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.16 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 57c | 888$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.16 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -44%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 48c | 210.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 38c | 197.03$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 58c | 189$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.17 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 42c | 151$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.58 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 51c | 136.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +13.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 119.52$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Over | 60c | 100.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 34cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 66c | 92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 59c | 89.65$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 57c | 86.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 86.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 76.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 45c | 56.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 57c | 52.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 77c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 41c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Red Bulls vs. New England Revolution: O/U 2.5this page
- New York Red Bulls vs. New England Revolution: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- New York Red Bulls vs. New England Revolution: O/U 1.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. New England Revolution: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: New England Revolution (-2.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)New England Revolution won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.