Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Elon Phoenix vs. Virginia Tech Hokies: O/U 156.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc4198713dcc2574ba0f9ffdc61be1d01be9f16bd0d367f82868b3564b39b415
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Under | 43c | 137$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 43c | 116$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Under | 43c | 102$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 47c | 87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 43c | 84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 44c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e71…8913backed Over | 57c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Over | 57c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 55c | 35.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 490 | 43.1%211 W · 279 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…c1a4backed Over | 57c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed Over | 57c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…840ebacked Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Over | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed Over | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Over | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 25.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Over | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…80cdbacked Over | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Over | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf340…6224backed Over | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…6a69backed Over | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Over | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed Over | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d49…c438backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Elon Phoenix vs. Virginia Tech Hokies: O/U 156.5this page
- Elon Phoenix vs. Virginia Tech HokiesVirginia Tech Hokies won
- Elon Phoenix vs. Virginia Tech Hokies: O/U 157.5Over won
- Elon Phoenix vs. Virginia Tech Hokies: O/U 158.5Over won
- Elon Phoenix vs. Virginia Tech Hokies: O/U 159.5Over won
- Spread: Virginia Tech Hokies (-13.5)Elon Phoenix won
- Spread: Virginia Tech Hokies (-14.5)Elon Phoenix won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.