Music · resolved market
Will Ariana Grande's highest daily YouTube views be between 14M and 15M?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc95162b784c3bd4555271525f193444e5404f4752856252bd6d22b1b7e0daf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6385…93f2backed Yes | 38c | 164$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +209.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.36per pick | 58cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 233 | 39.5%92 W · 141 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…07a3backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…094ebacked Yes | 40c | 29.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 59c | 20.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…e679backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 62c | 18.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.