College Football · resolved market
Will Penn St. beat Illinois?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcdf84619815e1d6d065187b9e95a9f801be4530e79f30518b60289256748f62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penn Stof Penn St, Illinois
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7e6…b643backed Illinois | 0c | 11,286$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Illinois | 11c | 2,500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e4…f149backed Illinois | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…83dcbacked Illinois | 13c | 1,500$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Illinois | 3c | 1,443$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…e948backed Illinois | 16c | 1,281$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Illinois | 8c | 1,246$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.09 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…772fbacked Illinois | 11c | 1,054$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21e7…5e93backed Illinois | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked Illinois | 28c | 886.49$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd34…3c7abacked Illinois | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Illinois | 19c | 600$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb386…4941backed Illinois | 19c | 265.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Illinois | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x794e…6a77backed Illinois | 18c | 203.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d56…d62ebacked Illinois | 12c | 199.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Illinois | 13c | 172.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Illinois | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2e…75eabacked Illinois | 11c | 99.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Penn St | 76c | 99.93$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a04…1993backed Illinois | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Illinois | 15c | 75.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1130…f920backed Illinois | 67c | 75.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Illinois | 20c | 69.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Penn St. beat Illinois?this page
- Will Penn St. and Illinois combine for 48 or more points?Under won
- Will Penn St. beat Illinois by 18 or more points?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.