College Football · resolved market
Will Penn St. beat Illinois by 18 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x774bf22354d1ef297a77f717c75a0db20863f90258eb925cd2c822ea6710ce09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 50c | 6,613$3,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,334.88 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed No | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 48c | 1,239$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.41 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ce…ab3abacked Yes | 55c | 910$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed No | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked No | 45c | 370$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.5 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked No | 74c | 186.67$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 73c | 163.33$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3e…c621backed No | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked No | 51c | 128.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49de…4dc5backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2e…75eabacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f02…db44backed Yes | 52c | 99.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338c…ac4bbacked No | 49c | 98.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d1…ebd2backed No | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb745…124abacked No | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…b950backed No | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked No | 47c | 42.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…c5cfbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Penn St. beat Illinois by 18 or more points?this page
- Will Penn St. and Illinois combine for 48 or more points?Under won
- Will Penn St. beat Illinois?Penn St won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.