Token Launches · resolved market
Over $4M committed to the TownSquare public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcf54668fc020607f7da1bf5c468d4a1d3f75b5eac78bf9f44d4ea0b2bf21c2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 6c | 265.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 252.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 12c | 198.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a0…e5f6backed No | 77c | 194.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 23c | 179$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed No | 57c | 101.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x750b…978cbacked Yes | 16c | 81.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 73c | 40.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddce…7194backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $4M committed to the TownSquare public sale?this page
- Over $1.25M committed to the TownSquare public sale?Yes won
- Over $1.5M committed to the TownSquare public sale?Yes won
- Over $1M committed to the TownSquare public sale?Yes won
- Over $2.5M committed to the TownSquare public sale?No won
- Over $2M committed to the TownSquare public sale?No won
- Over $3M committed to the TownSquare public sale?No won
- Over $500k committed to the TownSquare public sale?Yes won
- Over $5M committed to the TownSquare public sale?No won
- Over $7.5M committed to the TownSquare public sale?No won
- Over $750k committed to the TownSquare public sale?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.