Tennis · resolved market
ITF Galati: Lavinia Luciano vs Simona Ogescu
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd2da1d4f3c5fd42d60468deb5e2dd45ebe6d9fc5b17e9e454df3ca67cd721e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lavinia Lucianoof Lavinia Luciano, Simona Ogescu
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Simona Ogescu | 53c | 1,619$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.15 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lavinia Luciano | 45c | 1,560$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.19 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Lavinia Luciano | 48c | 392$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.19 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Simona Ogescu | 53c | 381.92$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.55 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Lavinia Luciano | 46c | 335.12$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.98 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Simona Ogescu | 53c | 212.26$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.81 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Lavinia Luciano | 50c | 175.67$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.15 | 435 | 52.9%230 W · 205 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Simona Ogescu | 49c | 166.72$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.69 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…b1ccbacked Simona Ogescu | 70c | 160.38$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 392 | 54.1%212 W · 180 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Lavinia Luciano | 30c | 133.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.71 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Simona Ogescu | 21c | 122$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Lavinia Luciano | 43c | 111.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Lavinia Luciano | 70c | 104.33$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Simona Ogescu | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Simona Ogescu | 23c | 94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Simona Ogescu | 21c | 84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Lavinia Luciano | 29c | 79.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…42e8backed Simona Ogescu | 71c | 64.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 898 | 59.7%536 W · 362 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Lavinia Luciano | 49c | 54.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 652 | 59.4%387 W · 265 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Lavinia Luciano | 45c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 273 | 53.1%145 W · 128 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…98cabacked Simona Ogescu | 71c | 39.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 408 | 61.3%250 W · 158 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Simona Ogescu | 67c | 37.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 354 | 57.3%203 W · 151 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Lavinia Luciano | 41c | 27.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 139 | 66.2%92 W · 47 L | +17.0wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Simona Ogescu | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Simona Ogescu | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Simona Ogescu | 55c | 22.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 796 | 46%366 W · 430 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Simona Ogescu | 75c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2c…be40backed Lavinia Luciano | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.