Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Utah State Aggies (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd3448be7fd09976d1b048cd9b83bb2e03950fc84550c93ee5177224d29bbe66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Utah State Aggiesof Utah State Aggies, San Diego State Aztecs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,616 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ec1…057cbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 52c | 9,531$4,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,956.32 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Utah State Aggies | 48c | 5,113$2,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,658.69 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Utah State Aggies | 48c | 1,890$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.8 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Utah State Aggies | 48c | 1,128$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.44 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Utah State Aggies | 50c | 507.92$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.96 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Utah State Aggies | 58c | 345.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.7 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Utah State Aggies | 50c | 277.55$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.78 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed San Diego State Aztecs | 45c | 266.83$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.22 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Utah State Aggies | 50c | 198.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.13 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Utah State Aggies | 48c | 192.9$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.31 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked San Diego State Aztecs | 60c | 93.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 139 | 56.8%79 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Utah State Aggies | 50c | 60.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…44a2backed Utah State Aggies | 50c | 57.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Utah State Aggies | 38c | 56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…7846backed Utah State Aggies | 52c | 45.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Utah State Aggies | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Utah State Aggies | 44c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Utah State Aggies | 58c | 17.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 227 | 56.4%128 W · 99 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Utah State Aggies (-2.5)this page
- San Diego State Aztecs vs. Utah State AggiesUtah State Aggies won
- San Diego State Aztecs vs. Utah State Aggies: O/U 151.5Under won
- Spread: Utah State Aggies (-3.5)Utah State Aggies won
- Spread: Utah State Aggies (-4.5)Utah State Aggies won
- Spread: Utah State Aggies (-5.5)Utah State Aggies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.