NHL · resolved market
KHL: HC Sochi vs. Shanghai Dragons
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddd013efb5081c6f9b64401e281f614d4f2e4b91f0b7f8384aab9b7b9c70f953
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shanghai Dragonsof HC Sochi, Shanghai Dragons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc70b…27bdbacked HC Sochi | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…30b3backed Shanghai Dragons | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5200…08f9backed Shanghai Dragons | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c7…6d19backed Shanghai Dragons | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed HC Sochi | 49c | 1,128$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.44 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Shanghai Dragons | 54c | 788.1$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.53 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked HC Sochi | 46c | 299.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.33 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13c3…00a8backed Shanghai Dragons | 54c | 203$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c1…bf3ebacked HC Sochi | 46c | 203$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee1a…3841backed Shanghai Dragons | 54c | 198$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e3…45b1backed HC Sochi | 46c | 198$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Shanghai Dragons | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 417 | 57.3%239 W · 178 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Shanghai Dragons | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Shanghai Dragons | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Shanghai Dragons | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 98 | 62.2%61 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed HC Sochi | 45c | 68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed HC Sochi | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed HC Sochi | 48c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed HC Sochi | 47c | 57.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf106…8e2ebacked Shanghai Dragons | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…7b98backed Shanghai Dragons | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Shanghai Dragons | 52c | 35.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…baf6backed Shanghai Dragons | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ed…86ddbacked HC Sochi | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed HC Sochi | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 162 | 37%60 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…67b1backed Shanghai Dragons | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…801ebacked Shanghai Dragons | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4182…ae54backed Shanghai Dragons | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Shanghai Dragons | 52c | 26.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Shanghai Dragons | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -55%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x76cc…b82fbacked Shanghai Dragons | 53c | 20.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…d82dbacked Shanghai Dragons | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.