Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdddef3d946cde325e59675bd575d57ccb630334e6c54bdd2cb4ca465a02d3b55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof Ilbirs eSports, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf4f…0bf2backed Spirit Academy | 43c | 738.83$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.02 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…c081backed Ilbirs eSports | 59c | 649.77$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.56 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b34…e95dbacked Spirit Academy | 32c | 336.94$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.93 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Spirit Academy | 40c | 333.39$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.29 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 269.58$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.58 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed Spirit Academy | 45c | 264.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.45 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Ilbirs eSports | 55c | 249.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10a5…c09fbacked Spirit Academy | 43c | 186.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…dca3backed Spirit Academy | 51c | 183.13$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 57c | 180.55$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.64 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 62c | 173.55$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.43 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3c…9f22backed Ilbirs eSports | 62c | 165.45$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…d06dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 72c | 161$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe187…a69cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 61c | 154.82$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.51 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe416…7fc0backed Ilbirs eSports | 69c | 154.6$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…3c1abacked Spirit Academy | 42c | 149.89$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…59f5backed Spirit Academy | 30c | 138.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…2f44backed Spirit Academy | 24c | 119.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 118.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.23 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…fa33backed Ilbirs eSports | 54c | 112.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddbd…bcb5backed Ilbirs eSports | 56c | 107.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 140 | 30.7%43 W · 97 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Spirit Academy | 40c | 103.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 233 | 42.9%100 W · 133 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed Ilbirs eSports | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 408 | 44.1%180 W · 228 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Spirit Academy | 35c | 90.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Spirit Academy | 39c | 84.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c5…c532backed Ilbirs eSports | 75c | 72.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Spirit Academy | 46c | 72.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b98…8bcbbacked Spirit Academy | 37c | 72.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8289…f84cbacked Spirit Academy | 25c | 63.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5305…97fcbacked Ilbirs eSports | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Spirit Academy | 50c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa03f…7560backed Spirit Academy | 50c | 38.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9195backed Ilbirs eSports | 73c | 34.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…66d1backed Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed Ilbirs eSports | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 WinnerSpirit Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.