Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: LUA (-1.5) vs FALKE Esports (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde0b14024633a959529cb49d503d4df46e1fbf4bfce4ac2ae3f822e7cbaf9909
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FALKE Esportsof LUA Gaming, FALKE Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked LUA Gaming | 38c | 778.45$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.81 | 1,485 | 50.1%744 W · 741 L | +67.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed FALKE Esports | 62c | 700$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266 | 205 | 57.1%117 W · 88 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked FALKE Esports | 57c | 405.44$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.76 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…ac09backed LUA Gaming | 42c | 351.4$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.18 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc671…b0c7backed LUA Gaming | 45c | 188.96$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.88 | 428 | 47.9%205 W · 223 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed FALKE Esports | 56c | 106.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 390 | 56.4%220 W · 170 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed FALKE Esports | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 316 | 50.3%159 W · 157 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…8259backed FALKE Esports | 62c | 76.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 381 | 44.6%170 W · 211 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9586…de67backed LUA Gaming | 41c | 71.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed FALKE Esports | 59c | 67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed FALKE Esports | 61c | 59.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 626 | 49.8%312 W · 314 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52c5…5878backed LUA Gaming | 39c | 35.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed LUA Gaming | 65c | 23.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,170 | 66.2%774 W · 396 L | +69.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: LUA (-1.5) vs FALKE Esports (+1.5)this page
- LoL: FALKE Esports vs LUA Gaming (BO3) - LES Regular SeasonLUA Gaming won
- LoL: FALKE Esports vs LUA Gaming - Game 1 WinnerLUA Gaming won
- LoL: FALKE Esports vs LUA Gaming - Game 2 WinnerFALKE Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.