Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Fredericia vs. Aarhus GF end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde0c49fd080761a5e9e61ee7ec4d1c325edf50ddd2bf066acc0653d0fb95cbb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2cf…d1e7backed Yes | 22c | 5,243$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,103.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 77c | 2,867$2,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,195.9 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 80c | 1,800$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 25c | 1,244$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.2 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 59c | 545.48$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.62 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 80c | 350$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 45c | 186.97$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.64 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 80c | 156$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 29c | 149$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.36 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed No | 68c | 74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 40c | 61.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 479 | 26.9%129 W · 350 L | -32.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…7330backed Yes | 64c | 46.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 56c | 44.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 38c | 42.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 583 | 20.1%117 W · 466 L | -37.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 55c | 36.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 79c | 35.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 56c | 23.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 73c | 13.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Fredericia vs. Aarhus GF end in a draw?this page
- Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-02-15?No won
- Will FC Fredericia win on 2026-02-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.