Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-02-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f6a8d5468238b814f64da1094df6fddb9447083ecaa004bc0d6249590346bac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 52c | 10,200$5,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,939.15 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 56c | 7,735$4,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,410.6 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cf…d1e7backed Yes | 61c | 6,503$3,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,937 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 376 | 41.5%156 W · 220 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 33c | 2,666$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.37 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Yes | 40c | 817.39$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…86abbacked Yes | 71c | 423.98$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e85…443ebacked No | 28c | 404.29$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 39c | 400.17$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.41 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Yes | 69c | 399.97$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.98 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 31c | 387.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.01 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 28c | 317.93$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.91 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Yes | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +6.9wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +34%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 59c | 282.48$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.89 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 54c | 220.89$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…8c81backed Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 32c | 184.06$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.53 | 169 | 52.1%88 W · 81 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 69c | 166.67$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.68 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 28c | 149.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.54 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…30d5backed Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Yes | 33c | 145.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc2…b834backed Yes | 71c | 141.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Yes | 48c | 135.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…cfcfbacked No | 31c | 132.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.26 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 67c | 131$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.77 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Yes | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 16c | 115$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 357 | 40.6%145 W · 212 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 29c | 108$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.68 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…f30ebacked Yes | 70c | 100.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 42c | 97.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 41c | 94.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 48c | 90.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x423c…25d5backed Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ced…6c81backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed No | 30c | 83.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed Yes | 66c | 80.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9135…a63ebacked Yes | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…8410backed Yes | 61c | 78.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23de…05c1backed Yes | 49c | 61.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…a8a9backed Yes | 40c | 60.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Yes | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 85 | 70.6%60 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 31c | 59.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…439ebacked Yes | 70c | 57.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 27c | 55.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 583 | 20.1%117 W · 466 L | -37.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 40c | 54.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 479 | 26.9%129 W · 350 L | -32.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 212 | 54.7%116 W · 96 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x722a…d6edbacked Yes | 41c | 49.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 328 | 35.4%116 W · 212 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 62c | 45.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Yes | 70c | 45.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972c…c2e2backed Yes | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Yes | 54c | 42.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11a2…0532backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 28c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 124 | 56.5%70 W · 54 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…4c1dbacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3202…b190backed Yes | 42c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba5…e557backed Yes | 70c | 28.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 46c | 25.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3f…38e4backed Yes | 59c | 20.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7202…e9b1backed Yes | 67c | 17.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 284 | 46.1%131 W · 153 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-02-15?this page
- Will FC Fredericia vs. Aarhus GF end in a draw?Yes won
- Will FC Fredericia win on 2026-02-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.