Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Montana State Bobcats vs. Idaho Vandals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde16240f33d68124c2b367b502f3c012a11ff1a48d7c19b9afd7ed866c89cb5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Idaho Vandalsof Montana State Bobcats, Idaho Vandals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Idaho Vandals | 51c | 1,578$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.22 | 605 | 48.9%296 W · 309 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Idaho Vandals | 54c | 1,009$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.66 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Montana State Bobcats | 46c | 906.67$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.07 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Montana State Bobcats | 49c | 853.51$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.22 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Montana State Bobcats | 49c | 822.51$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.03 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Montana State Bobcats | 49c | 724.49$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ae…f107backed Idaho Vandals | 27c | 399.75$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.94 | 423 | 27.2%115 W · 308 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Montana State Bobcats | 77c | 331.9$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.2 | 735 | 49.1%361 W · 374 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Montana State Bobcats | 74c | 228.77$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.29 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…27fabacked Montana State Bobcats | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Montana State Bobcats | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Idaho Vandals | 34c | 195.88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.39 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…e9f8backed Idaho Vandals | 15c | 172.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.87 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 28cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Montana State Bobcats | 64c | 121.27$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.46 | 369 | 42.3%156 W · 213 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Idaho Vandals | 59c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 1,074 | 43.3%465 W · 609 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Montana State Bobcats | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…630cbacked Montana State Bobcats | 64c | 47.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Idaho Vandals | 28c | 36.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Montana State Bobcats | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Montana State Bobcats | 38c | 30.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Montana State Bobcats | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce0a…2d88backed Idaho Vandals | 64c | 29.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Montana State Bobcats | 49c | 20.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Montana State Bobcats | 77c | 18.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Montana State Bobcats vs. Idaho Vandalsthis page
- Montana State Bobcats vs. Idaho Vandals: O/U 143.5Over won
- Montana State Bobcats vs. Idaho Vandals: O/U 144.5Over won
- Montana State Bobcats vs. Idaho Vandals: O/U 145.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.