Tennis · resolved market
Novak Djokovic vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde382211eb39680e187aedf87b6926fd707ef4b1ff5bf9e7847c328f8666d949
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,029 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Under 2.5 | 58c | 910.57$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.18 | 142 | 43%61 W · 81 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over 2.5 | 31c | 351$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 287 | 24.4%70 W · 217 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over 2.5 | 49c | 300.34$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.32 | 163 | 58.9%96 W · 67 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Over 2.5 | 29c | 299.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.99 | 287 | 47.7%137 W · 150 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e31…5e8ebacked Under 2.5 | 72c | 251.44$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.16 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under 2.5 | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 658 | 49.4%325 W · 333 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over 2.5 | 23c | 123.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.35 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over 2.5 | 23c | 60.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Over 2.5 | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 299 | 47.5%142 W · 157 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over 2.5 | 23c | 51.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 236 | 53.4%126 W · 110 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Under 2.5 | 35c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -8.0wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under 2.5 | 70c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…0b89backed Over 2.5 | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed Under 2.5 | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +34.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Under 2.5 | 71c | 22.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Novak Djokovic vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- BNP Paribas Open: Novak Djokovic vs Aleksandar KovacevicNovak Djokovic won
- Djokovic vs. Kovacevic: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Djokovic vs. Kovacevic: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Djokovic vs KovacevicDjokovic won
- Set Handicap: Djokovic (-1.5) vs Kovacevic (+1.5)Kovacevic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.