MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde45ef9421eec7b2d7057c812c320dcf81ba6bfa68b13d64f15f5cb64471d014
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 41c | 4,307$1,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,557.56 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e0…9970backed Under | 60c | 4,002$2,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,401.11 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 44c | 3,627$1,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,595.94 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 56c | 1,942$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.13 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 56c | 1,383$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.03 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…c873backed Under | 66c | 757.65$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 537.15$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.01 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 41c | 497.34$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.43 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 58c | 362.25$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.74 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 41c | 308.83$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.68 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 38c | 263.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.29 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 58c | 229.66$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.46 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 56c | 198.7$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.03 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…614dbacked Under | 65c | 126.34$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 55c | 101.86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.42 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…afe9backed Under | 44c | 81.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7815…7310backed Under | 68c | 29.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 41c | 24.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked Over | 49c | 22.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. AthleticsDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.