Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde56596de1a2d2fe921fa6ec11282be107cf346b0d062560d2afbd0c93f71379
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 0c | 19,521$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 828.85$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 4c | 798.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 634.7$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 427.37$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.44 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 4c | 408.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 15c | 386.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 14c | 347.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 3c | 346.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 8c | 315.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 6c | 309.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 11c | 299.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 17c | 274.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 269.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 11c | 174.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 75c | 162.07$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 157.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 109.25$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 11c | 96.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 92.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 86.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e9…780dbacked Yes | 37c | 77.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 71.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 71.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 32c | 61.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 25c | 59.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 34c | 52.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 21c | 48.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 42.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 32c | 37.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b7…913cbacked No | 65c | 34.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…899dbacked No | 71c | 32.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x314e…d234backed Yes | 37c | 31.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 78c | 30.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 73c | 26.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 25.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 66c | 23.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…36d1backed No | 68c | 21.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 80c | 20.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 72c | 19.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 19.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 71c | 16.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 15.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 72c | 15.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…631fbacked No | 78c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.