Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x860987f123b1522847639b06a9ee2e08fa90edc16e4475daede190845a9546e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6dc…622bbacked Yes | 0c | 15,302$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1453…39a7backed Yes | 1c | 940.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 622.34$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.81 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked No | 78c | 250.39$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 64c | 232.56$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 36c | 199.62$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.86 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 38c | 199.14$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 33c | 197.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.09 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 182.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…c51bbacked Yes | 56c | 169.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.63 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 30c | 145.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 23c | 134.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 40c | 130$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 128.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 72c | 127.62$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 36c | 127.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 37c | 126.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 41c | 115.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 39c | 101.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 101.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 14c | 95.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 29c | 92.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…6ea0backed Yes | 27c | 88.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 85.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 42c | 77.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed Yes | 45c | 71.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 68.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…b925backed Yes | 36c | 66.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 36c | 64.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 29c | 64.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 37c | 64.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 59.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 26c | 57.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked Yes | 39c | 55.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 56c | 54.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 58c | 53.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 59c | 53.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 38c | 46.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 39c | 45.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 30c | 45.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 30c | 43.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 44c | 43.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 57c | 42.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 56c | 41.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…fa02backed No | 64c | 38.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 38c | 37.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 54c | 37.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 29c | 36.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce82…8c84backed No | 64c | 33.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x248d…3512backed No | 60c | 33.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfd…90aebacked No | 74c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 44c | 31.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No | 62c | 31.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 39c | 27.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked No | 74c | 27.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 54c | 24.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…bd14backed No | 63c | 24.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 23.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a5…40aebacked No | 55c | 22.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 62c | 20.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…701ebacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed No | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.