Asian League · resolved market
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde58fd047e5580b8a28f231f3dcffcbdfc3463328c4cd6622981fe3266d96941
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 1,350$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.82 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 33c | 909$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.97 | 144 | 29.2%42 W · 102 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 30c | 412$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.6 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 15c | 383.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +114.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 44c | 341.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 43c | 235$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 57c | 235$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.05 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 65c | 201.15$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 55c | 124.71$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.54 | 225 | 55.1%124 W · 101 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ff…e90ebacked Over | 43c | 60.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 27c | 52.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 42c | 51.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Under | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 42c | 34.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 73c | 26.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17a1…8501backed Under | 58c | 23.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…b654backed Under | 57c | 20.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb11d…3706backed Under | 57c | 19.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…6266backed Under | 57c | 19.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805d…9df5backed Under | 69c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 71c | 16.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 159 | 71.1%113 W · 46 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…98e6backed Under | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashima Antlers: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Kashima Antlers (-1.5)FC Mito Holly Hock won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.