Asian League · resolved market
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f67408b55b5033b694ae82ee2f057c74eddd02bbc857678a4235f3a4faebb88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 923.89$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.71 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 72c | 691.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.45 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f89…e85bbacked Over | 30c | 290$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 42cpaid | +161%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 42c | 282.82$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.07 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 28c | 271.12$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 196.89$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.51 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 53c | 153.02$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.48 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 72c | 139.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 213 | 67.6%144 W · 69 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 58c | 134.22$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 28c | 124.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 63c | 107$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…746bbacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02e7…2519backed Under | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 24c | 69.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…76dcbacked Under | 30c | 66.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 68c | 64.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 37c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40c…1734backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 68c | 43.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 225 | 55.1%124 W · 101 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb017…9f48backed Over | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Under | 28c | 38.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 31c | 33.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 31c | 33.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…e67bbacked Over | 56c | 31.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 43c | 31.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 69c | 28.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d93abacked Over | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…98e6backed Under | 64c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -8.5wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashima Antlers: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Kashima Antlers (-1.5)FC Mito Holly Hock won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.