NHL · resolved market
Red Wings vs. Kraken
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde5f6b644a27950730ba635f1d15da2285ad2e30718cbedce8ce08508fac2656
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Red Wings, Kraken
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Kraken | 6c | 14,133$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.71 | 928 | 48.5%450 W · 478 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Kraken | 18c | 5,161$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.96 | 323 | 31.3%101 W · 222 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Kraken | 53c | 3,186$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700.46 | 194 | 38.1%74 W · 120 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9747…2823backed Kraken | 53c | 3,000$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,582.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945e…2acabacked Kraken | 42c | 1,879$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.6 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…b3cebacked Kraken | 51c | 1,651$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.86 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98fd…b575backed Red Wings | 49c | 1,650$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Red Wings | 53c | 1,473$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.16 | 237 | 61.6%146 W · 91 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…12e7backed Red Wings | 72c | 1,396$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x324a…d868backed Kraken | 52c | 1,200$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Kraken | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Kraken | 1c | 1,175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1396…b149backed Red Wings | 55c | 1,134$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.12 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Kraken | 51c | 1,040$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.38 | 348 | 45.4%158 W · 190 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Kraken | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…f722backed Red Wings | 50c | 941.85$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.1 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x519f…2af7backed Red Wings | 57c | 790.86$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.86 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Kraken | 49c | 593.91$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.01 | 493 | 51.3%253 W · 240 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Kraken | 51c | 578.99$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.28 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kraken | 46c | 531.8$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.42 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Kraken | 46c | 511.78$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.47 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Red Wings | 53c | 504.99$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.82 | 724 | 44.6%323 W · 401 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Red Wings | 49c | 448.98$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.98 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Red Wings | 49c | 244.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.9 | 128 | 59.4%76 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Red Wings | 50c | 240$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 154 | 56.5%87 W · 67 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Kraken | 49c | 225.39$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.44 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Kraken | 51c | 215.78$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.83 | 1,475 | 48.3%712 W · 763 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Red Wings | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Kraken | 27c | 201.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Kraken | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 724 | 48.3%350 W · 374 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Red Wings | 48c | 198.97$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.48 | 818 | 46%376 W · 442 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Red Wings | 50c | 198.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.19 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…4655backed Kraken | 53c | 179.08$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.91 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44af…c7ddbacked Red Wings | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Kraken | 50c | 140.75$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.91 | 840 | 51.4%432 W · 408 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Kraken | 43c | 117.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4c…c56cbacked Kraken | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c9…271bbacked Red Wings | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…4641backed Red Wings | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Red Wings | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…79a4backed Kraken | 51c | 101.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc93…4249backed Red Wings | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…f3fdbacked Red Wings | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Red Wings | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 500 | 49.4%247 W · 253 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Red Wings | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 205 | 40.5%83 W · 122 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…80e0backed Red Wings | 50c | 96.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5b…6da4backed Kraken | 51c | 92.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6e…919cbacked Red Wings | 50c | 83.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef52…8a44backed Kraken | 51c | 81.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Red Wings | 61c | 57.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…8507backed Red Wings | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32b…9395backed Kraken | 53c | 43.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x277f…4d50backed Kraken | 51c | 43.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…acb1backed Red Wings | 48c | 40.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…1661backed Red Wings | 49c | 38.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…b0e2backed Kraken | 52c | 37.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…0771backed Red Wings | 48c | 37.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Red Wings | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 459 | 54.2%249 W · 210 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6206…d237backed Red Wings | 48c | 35.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8989…3164backed Red Wings | 55c | 35.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e8…c353backed Kraken | 52c | 33.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…7f84backed Kraken | 51c | 33.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…f3fbbacked Red Wings | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce5c…fac6backed Kraken | 51c | 29.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.44per pick | 61cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdb…4f60backed Red Wings | 47c | 27.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…f977backed Kraken | 52c | 26.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9af…06bcbacked Red Wings | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5c…056fbacked Red Wings | 55c | 25.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79f1…bfb6backed Kraken | 54c | 25.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb432…9babbacked Kraken | 52c | 25.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553e…2e13backed Red Wings | 47c | 24.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96bb…730ebacked Kraken | 53c | 24.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…c4d6backed Red Wings | 48c | 23.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70d6…3b01backed Kraken | 52c | 23.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfda…6c0bbacked Red Wings | 48c | 22.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc310…47c9backed Kraken | 51c | 22.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e2…a0bdbacked Red Wings | 49c | 22.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7db…45c1backed Red Wings | 50c | 22.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…9b0dbacked Red Wings | 49c | 20.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…c412backed Kraken | 53c | 19.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.