Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FK BATE Barysaŭ vs. AF Elbasani end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde5fb6071e9687edaea30f6616f46aaba64b9790fad9c7eb9db3ed00f1223ab6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 44c | 673$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.64 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 71c | 499.94$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.96 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 51c | 379.56$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.72 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…5e8bbacked Yes | 29c | 239.19$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.83 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked No | 44c | 164.61$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.85 | 156 | 28.2%44 W · 112 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 47c | 113.57$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 53c | 73.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 71c | 72.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 55c | 65.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc95d…d369backed No | 52c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…96dabacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…fa87backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +149.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ce…b622backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +149.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…d55ebacked No | 52c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe16f…a33fbacked Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b4…f911backed Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…51f8backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe0…48e5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d71…08a9backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f53…5e9fbacked Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4b…5bedbacked Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9384…1772backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9291…71a2backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK BATE Barysaŭ vs. AF Elbasani end in a draw?this page
- Will AF Elbasani win on 2026-07-16?No won
- Will FK BATE Barysaŭ win on 2026-07-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.