Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AF Elbasani win on 2026-07-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c001dae5df8a768007404ca81d4ef3787af8c60378c74d9107d3f6a26550f4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2677…fe76backed Yes | 1c | 1,966$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 48c | 1,506$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.98 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd76…a60cbacked Yes | 47c | 1,500$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.93 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 60c | 1,492$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.07 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x580b…0522backed No | 53c | 1,470$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.08 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 44c | 1,190$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.53 | 2,478 | 33.9%840 W · 1,638 L | -95.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 720.39$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.84 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 54c | 555$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.3 | 1,026 | 47.4%486 W · 540 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 55c | 545$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.9 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 68c | 490.28$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.07 | 1,611 | 38.8%625 W · 986 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 68c | 451.37$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.17 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 48c | 444.9$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.5 | 978 | 46.2%452 W · 526 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 54c | 428.25$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.99 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Yes | 37c | 405.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 44c | 360.33$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.55 | 2,175 | 37.6%817 W · 1,358 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked No | 54c | 352.67$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.23 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 45c | 319.85$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.93 | 2,344 | 41.6%976 W · 1,368 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 47c | 300.4$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.69 | 1,046 | 50.2%525 W · 521 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 52c | 285.85$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.21 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Yes | 27c | 226.68$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 156 | 28.2%44 W · 112 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 54c | 215.9$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.42 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 54c | 209.15$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.21 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f9…b000backed Yes | 48c | 206.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…5513backed Yes | 45c | 170.24$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.61 | 280 | 12.9%36 W · 244 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 62c | 131.69$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 45c | 128$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 443 | 56.2%249 W · 194 L | +23.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 47c | 115.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 658 | 35.6%234 W · 424 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 795 | 54.1%430 W · 365 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3995…f71dbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed No | 64c | 97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 352 | 46.3%163 W · 189 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 47c | 91.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 164 | 43.9%72 W · 92 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked No | 54c | 84.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Yes | 48c | 78.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbef0…69c8backed Yes | 33c | 66.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea76…276bbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…d807backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Yes | 36c | 52.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95d…d369backed Yes | 44c | 51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…d55ebacked No | 73c | 48.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 267 | 47.2%126 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…1525backed No | 55c | 32.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 482 | 49.8%240 W · 242 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Yes | 48c | 27.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 202 | 44.6%90 W · 112 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 72c | 18.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AF Elbasani win on 2026-07-16?this page
- Will FK BATE Barysaŭ vs. AF Elbasani end in a draw?Yes won
- Will FK BATE Barysaŭ win on 2026-07-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.