Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs NPC's IRL (BO3) - European Pro League Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde7804ea0d79005c56360ecdb714ae9f7afee2c4970529f7dac04b92f27a3809
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academyof Spirit Academy, NPC's IRL
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Spirit Academy | 69c | 431.73$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.73 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed NPC's IRL | 34c | 402.26$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.8 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x139c…1db1backed Spirit Academy | 66c | 400.8$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fb…4442backed NPC's IRL | 33c | 399.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdd…1b11backed NPC's IRL | 31c | 229.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Spirit Academy | 67c | 219.27$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed NPC's IRL | 8c | 158.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed NPC's IRL | 14c | 150.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked NPC's IRL | 27c | 147.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed NPC's IRL | 38c | 112.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x494c…8923backed Spirit Academy | 67c | 106.62$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed NPC's IRL | 36c | 104.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Spirit Academy | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ed…063bbacked NPC's IRL | 35c | 99.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked NPC's IRL | 25c | 90.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc983…ebf0backed NPC's IRL | 12c | 89.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…ac80backed NPC's IRL | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Spirit Academy | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4287…3d5ebacked NPC's IRL | 31c | 41.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed NPC's IRL | 38c | 34.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d79…a4e0backed Spirit Academy | 64c | 31.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Spirit Academy | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Spirit Academy | 76c | 20.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Spirit Academy | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 52 | 80.8%42 W · 10 L | +8.6wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…0ae6backed Spirit Academy | 69c | 14.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5753…fa31backed Spirit Academy | 73c | 13.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs NPC's IRL (BO3) - European Pro League Group Athis page
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs NPC's IRL - Game 1 WinnerSpirit Academy won
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs NPC's IRL - Game 2 WinnerSpirit Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.