La Liga · resolved market
UD Las Palmas vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdec158a30341d8d0d5f322f0a79251e0087e6916fb7c75f872ddbcef7007ec79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,856 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 75c | 1,207$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.94 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Under | 27c | 1,049$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.23 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 76c | 392.42$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.42 | 192 | 58.9%113 W · 79 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 57c | 249.95$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.48 | 130 | 70.8%92 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 27c | 197.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 43c | 144.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 284 | 46.5%132 W · 152 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 32c | 103.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 72c | 101.39$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 67c | 92.77$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 58c | 87.97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 340 | 50%170 W · 170 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 84.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 32c | 68.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 288 | 47.6%137 W · 151 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 31c | 64.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 31c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 89 | 38.2%34 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 627 | 44.3%278 W · 349 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 47c | 25.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 73c | 24.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 70c | 24.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Over | 73c | 16.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…41dcbacked Over | 73c | 13.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UD Las Palmas vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-1.5)UD Las Palmas won
- Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-2.5)UD Las Palmas won
- Spread: UD Las Palmas (-1.5)UD Las Palmas won
- UD Las Palmas vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- UD Las Palmas vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.