Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on February 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdee32b44e3cf9cf686f224976270006f209ff68ec862c619a86529e21899e215
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 8c | 759.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 47c | 462.96$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.9 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 400.76$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.37 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 359.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 32c | 263.01$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.57 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed No | 63c | 199.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.99 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 15c | 137.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 36c | 125.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.87 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 23c | 100.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…3af0backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 31c | 84.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 80.48$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.57 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed No | 65c | 68.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 79c | 65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 24c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 66c | 57.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…4043backed Yes | 26c | 57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1f…2dd0backed No | 76c | 54.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 69cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 21c | 50.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 38c | 47.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…959ebacked No | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 39.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 30c | 37.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…0a6ebacked Yes | 35c | 35.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 57c | 25.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 79c | 25.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 23.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb256…0506backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…3c9cbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7761…a255backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed No | 72c | 13.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on February 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 29°F or below on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on February 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.