Tennis · resolved market
ITF Saskatoon: Ariana Arseneault vs Teah Chavez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdef2a0f8a3523e03f2a957098c037efe3d76d79e6635eeecb740dde434a52e8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Teah Chavezof Ariana Arseneault, Teah Chavez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x187a…a22bbacked Teah Chavez | 75c | 13,922$10,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,422.14 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ariana Arseneault | 27c | 8,606$2,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,359.42 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Ariana Arseneault | 1c | 1,742$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 3.7%2 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Ariana Arseneault | 25c | 923.01$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.75 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Ariana Arseneault | 58c | 842.6$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.28 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Teah Chavez | 13c | 621.42$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.41 | 705 | 37.6%265 W · 440 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ariana Arseneault | 23c | 602.87$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.41 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Ariana Arseneault | 41c | 488.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Teah Chavez | 13c | 257.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.46 | 235 | 30.2%71 W · 164 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b9…4467backed Teah Chavez | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 380 | 33.9%129 W · 251 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Ariana Arseneault | 16c | 220$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 171 | 36.3%62 W · 109 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc0…ee45backed Ariana Arseneault | 22c | 162.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48e4…db33backed Teah Chavez | 62c | 143.55$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 189 | 68.8%130 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Teah Chavez | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Ariana Arseneault | 47c | 93.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x583c…86c0backed Teah Chavez | 23c | 86.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.79 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Ariana Arseneault | 32c | 61.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Ariana Arseneault | 40c | 42.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Ariana Arseneault | 73c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 186 | 66.7%124 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…641abacked Ariana Arseneault | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 337 | 51.9%175 W · 162 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Ariana Arseneault | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Ariana Arseneault | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.