Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf4758582040f2816b001ff96529bd439bc87eb02d0a958bf3fd13a834b3b9b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…5954backed Yes | 2c | 1,019$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 10c | 493.07$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.98 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 43c | 459.68$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.49 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7523backed No | 67c | 220$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e96…f109backed Yes | 75c | 150$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 53c | 150$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe44…3b76backed No | 22c | 139.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.19 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 41c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba9f…87acbacked Yes | 52c | 64.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…3948backed Yes | 59c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08f7…c52ebacked No | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x138c…d2c7backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked Yes | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e9…b638backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x446c…f245backed Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e56…5b6ebacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +75%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 70°F or higher on October 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on October 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on October 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on October 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.