Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf52c2b4da8dc0f955eda4932fbb9dba766a14cbe180e612c64c1aae56316839
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof Team Nemesis, PlayTime
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked PlayTime | 14c | 2,001$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.72 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Team Nemesis | 76c | 1,703$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.56 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed PlayTime | 6c | 1,155$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked PlayTime | 6c | 624.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked PlayTime | 37c | 593.21$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.74 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked PlayTime | 25c | 449.77$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.44 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Team Nemesis | 63c | 342.02$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.55 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked PlayTime | 26c | 302.24$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.11 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked PlayTime | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Team Nemesis | 68c | 288.47$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d66…ffc9backed PlayTime | 6c | 235.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab27…0c65backed Team Nemesis | 69c | 208.63$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1995…84c6backed Team Nemesis | 68c | 144.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked PlayTime | 38c | 143.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed PlayTime | 19c | 136.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed PlayTime | 31c | 97.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d5…7c98backed PlayTime | 23c | 85.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Nemesis | 70c | 81.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9120…ae70backed Team Nemesis | 68c | 72.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Team Nemesis | 63c | 70.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad82…c48abacked Team Nemesis | 69c | 49.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -64%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed PlayTime | 29c | 44.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Team Nemesis | 70c | 30.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd49…515dbacked Team Nemesis | 69c | 21.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - BLAST Slam Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsTeam Nemesis won
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.