Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29effa95c5e4ae861ad116af4ff1d1fe3b1c058af04acb3a32aa2b5fd6aa40ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof Team Nemesis, PlayTime
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked PlayTime | 26c | 4,228$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.58 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Nemesis | 72c | 2,400$1,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.3 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed PlayTime | 31c | 1,900$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.96 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked PlayTime | 27c | 1,250$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.59 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Team Nemesis | 68c | 1,149$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.86 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked Team Nemesis | 76c | 911.47$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.86 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Team Nemesis | 80c | 744.52$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.68 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed PlayTime | 54c | 693.12$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.05 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Team Nemesis | 71c | 692.02$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.72 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed Team Nemesis | 71c | 669.89$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.6 | 400 | 51.5%206 W · 194 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed PlayTime | 32c | 408.7$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.7 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Nemesis | 61c | 352.1$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.62 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed Team Nemesis | 53c | 347.34$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.8 | 286 | 50%143 W · 143 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Team Nemesis | 68c | 274.62$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.88 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…263cbacked PlayTime | 33c | 256.56$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.39 | 241 | 37.3%90 W · 151 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Nemesis | 64c | 225.96$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.38 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed PlayTime | 46c | 218.32$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.06 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked PlayTime | 47c | 202.96$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.39 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed PlayTime | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…d0d9backed Team Nemesis | 63c | 199.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9da0…523cbacked Team Nemesis | 63c | 197.31$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.03 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked PlayTime | 30c | 189.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…dac5backed Team Nemesis | 68c | 141.62$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked PlayTime | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked PlayTime | 33c | 105.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3e…9120backed PlayTime | 25c | 84.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Team Nemesis | 63c | 77.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed PlayTime | 31c | 76.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…4fa3backed PlayTime | 62c | 75.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Team Nemesis | 58c | 72.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9120…ae70backed Team Nemesis | 68c | 72.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…9debbacked Team Nemesis | 69c | 71.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Team Nemesis | 52c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42e…59e1backed PlayTime | 39c | 53.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb021…6178backed PlayTime | 44c | 49.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd49…515dbacked PlayTime | 39c | 49.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Team Nemesis | 46c | 48.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked PlayTime | 54c | 48.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked PlayTime | 38c | 47.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked Team Nemesis | 52c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Team Nemesis | 68c | 44.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Team Nemesis | 66c | 43.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked Team Nemesis | 56c | 42.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Team Nemesis | 48c | 41.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…19eebacked Team Nemesis | 79c | 41.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f69…1535backed PlayTime | 35c | 40.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…4089backed Team Nemesis | 62c | 39.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed PlayTime | 26c | 39.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb01…0442backed Team Nemesis | 77c | 38.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Team Nemesis | 48c | 35.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Team Nemesis | 37c | 34.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90cb…4622backed Team Nemesis | 68c | 34.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Team Nemesis | 37c | 33.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Team Nemesis | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Team Nemesis | 51c | 30.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 245 | 27.3%67 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Team Nemesis | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…1ee1backed Team Nemesis | 42c | 25.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 211 | 33.6%71 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…a696backed Team Nemesis | 79c | 25.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Team Nemesis | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…206ebacked PlayTime | 76c | 16.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - BLAST Slam Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsTeam Nemesis won
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.