Tennis · resolved market
ITF Taipei: Reina Goto vs Misaki Matsuda
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf8cebe6f9f4043fdb46f3734fa9e8aba7bdcaea62de508c53a1a25532fe7307
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Misaki Matsudaof Reina Goto, Misaki Matsuda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Reina Goto | 5c | 1,625$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…079ebacked Reina Goto | 44c | 1,089$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 416 | 45.4%189 W · 227 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ec…23bdbacked Misaki Matsuda | 79c | 1,050$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.25 | 167 | 69.5%116 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4741…6af1backed Reina Goto | 21c | 1,050$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.25 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…055bbacked Misaki Matsuda | 58c | 1,047$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.16 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Reina Goto | 5c | 962.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Reina Goto | 5c | 850$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Reina Goto | 52c | 796$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.84 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Reina Goto | 42c | 640.61$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.3 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Misaki Matsuda | 48c | 600$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Reina Goto | 5c | 450$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d68…d64cbacked Misaki Matsuda | 67c | 312.61$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Reina Goto | 36c | 273.01$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Reina Goto | 5c | 265$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6200…7d23backed Reina Goto | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc49…d0ffbacked Reina Goto | 18c | 213.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Misaki Matsuda | 46c | 212.52$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.76 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4232…d505backed Reina Goto | 43c | 188.95$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 372 | 35.2%131 W · 241 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Misaki Matsuda | 58c | 102.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b6…4b40backed Reina Goto | 41c | 98.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 306 | 25.8%79 W · 227 L | -28.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Reina Goto | 20c | 87.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Reina Goto | 26c | 85.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Reina Goto | 21c | 48.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…e445backed Misaki Matsuda | 63c | 44.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Misaki Matsuda | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Reina Goto | 52c | 23.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9465…be0bbacked Misaki Matsuda | 59c | 21.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Reina Goto | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 450 | 53.3%240 W · 210 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF Taipei: Reina Goto vs Misaki Matsudathis page
- Set 1 Winner: Goto vs MatsudaMatsuda won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.