Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on February 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfd430090d48726394c303e0be45a12e5e7c0449cde7445802efe284a12b5625
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ad8…9f4abacked Yes | 24c | 2,640$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc88c…6702backed No | 76c | 1,340$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0760…7075backed No | 76c | 1,300$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 376.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 35c | 346.14$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.1 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 11c | 278.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 221.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 205.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 144.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf393…d509backed No | 26c | 141$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.6 | 22 | 100%22 W · 0 L | +9.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 140.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 131.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 9c | 127$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 18c | 115.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 20c | 99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…19ccbacked No | 80c | 88.75$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…d74fbacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ce…83d5backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 27c | 73.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 25c | 73.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c8…9cf6backed Yes | 21c | 72.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 44c | 71.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b2…4951backed Yes | 29c | 67.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 18c | 62.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d7…9600backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 71c | 57.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 44c | 42.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 40.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 70c | 40.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 61c | 32.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…1c2dbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 64c | 29.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 74c | 29.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 40c | 27.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…55eebacked Yes | 52c | 24.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…d8cebacked Yes | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 13.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on February 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C or below on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on February 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.