Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on February 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7c549e272c9ea684093a39310f6e892be56dc807eaf09b2bf3778256022a21d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 26c | 636.7$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.18 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 69c | 406.17$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.7 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 62c | 314.06$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.03 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 21c | 224.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.34 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.98 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 76c | 197.3$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b2…4951backed No | 64c | 181.97$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.19 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 181.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 26c | 150.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.87 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 34c | 143.58$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.19 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 34c | 125.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 32c | 123.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.29 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 63c | 118.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.13 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed No | 79c | 109.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 21c | 98.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.97 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76ac…5315backed Yes | 20c | 93.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.91 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 57c | 87.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 74.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…2f75backed Yes | 36c | 69.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7660…c588backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x751d…9f55backed Yes | 43c | 44.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 26c | 44.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 28c | 43.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a9…cd69backed Yes | 51c | 41.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 40.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 34c | 40.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacd4…888cbacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 54c | 39.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 52c | 35.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked No | 60c | 33.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…e18dbacked No | 49c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 63c | 31.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a5…d52cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 66c | 30.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35b3…8d9bbacked Yes | 51c | 29.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 51c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 57c | 24.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ee…3a49backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 59c | 22.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 49c | 21.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 20.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…2722backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb94…f5fbbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked Yes | 60c | 19.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 63c | 18.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…5968backed No | 59c | 16.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on February 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C or below on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.