NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Wild: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdff6e0292ab2287ce3e55ef23d5ddd0121442d3322952c30eb2f0533139ca8ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 6,741$3,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,309.41 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 50c | 3,959$1,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,963.77 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…9b8bbacked Under | 54c | 3,382$1,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.72 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 52c | 2,898$1,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,391.52 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53df…b886backed Under | 54c | 2,632$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210.72 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5f…8fd7backed Over | 46c | 2,052$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9f…b842backed Over | 46c | 1,677$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 51c | 1,600$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784 | 348 | 45.4%158 W · 190 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 1,599$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.9 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6664…321dbacked Under | 54c | 1,588$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.48 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f24…279ebacked Over | 46c | 1,584$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc60…38fabacked Over | 46c | 1,421$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67cf…e85fbacked Under | 54c | 1,306$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.76 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 48cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 50c | 1,290$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.01 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8210…2e9ebacked Under | 54c | 1,289$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x132d…2f5dbacked Over | 46c | 1,211$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Under | 54c | 1,183$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.97 | 315 | 46.3%146 W · 169 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x281c…775ebacked Over | 46c | 996$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 48c | 659.92$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d06…d786backed Over | 46c | 488$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…a943backed Under | 54c | 464$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122a…8505backed Over | 46c | 421$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40a0…385ebacked Over | 46c | 397$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.62 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7783…b1fdbacked Over | 46c | 293$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf57…053bbacked Under | 60c | 190$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x888b…aa66backed Over | 46c | 121$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…1ec7backed Over | 49c | 102.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 46c | 85.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Over | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 178 | 45.5%81 W · 97 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Wild: O/U 6.5this page
- Penguins vs. WildPenguins won
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.