Commodities · resolved market
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe046a286bda5b5d97b6b59d2ffbc8e04c202ba4f4d9892a2b344324f26aa7ee8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,696 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c79…55febacked Down | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60c4…f6b7backed Up | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4c…fb98backed Up | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Down | 28c | 840.4$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Down | 4c | 457.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Up | 50c | 446.57$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36a2…e1f9backed Down | 51c | 372.75$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa651…1fd0backed Down | 20c | 305.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Down | 7c | 174.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Up | 58c | 150$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 17c | 133.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64cc…0da1backed Up | 78c | 127.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Down | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…6162backed Down | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21b1…b066backed Up | 79c | 50.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…82a0backed Down | 35c | 47.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ede…57c0backed Up | 65c | 31.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Up | 49c | 27.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1e…f069backed Down | 53c | 18.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Up | 72c | 17.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.