Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Priscilla Hon vs Marina Stakusic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe08ee4b811d63e95d5520dd104cf8b6dee798c01adc7c9b9a057f44758fae106
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Honof Hon, Stakusic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Stakusic | 47c | 9,926$4,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,647.3 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hon | 48c | 3,030$1,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,565.16 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Hon | 56c | 2,404$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.18 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hon | 39c | 2,051$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.11 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Stakusic | 60c | 1,948$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.18 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Stakusic | 29c | 1,624$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.53 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Stakusic | 40c | 700$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.59 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -8.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Stakusic | 29c | 644.39$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.04 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Hon | 74c | 569.39$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.12 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Stakusic | 60c | 541$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.6 | 317 | 53.6%170 W · 147 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Hon | 44c | 380.43$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.49 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Hon | 40c | 360$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 810 | 47.9%388 W · 422 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17bf…5a53backed Stakusic | 50c | 338.93$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.13 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc48a…c6c4backed Stakusic | 52c | 333$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.66 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Hon | 29c | 269.48$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.76 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Hon | 40c | 191$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.6 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Stakusic | 58c | 180.53$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.33 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…db1fbacked Stakusic | 51c | 158.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Hon | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.34 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Hon | 64c | 111.62$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Stakusic | 18c | 95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…dc37backed Stakusic | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1660…9d86backed Stakusic | 61c | 81.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Stakusic | 61c | 81.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a4…3fd8backed Stakusic | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef4b…f8babacked Stakusic | 18c | 58.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…f23ebacked Hon | 54c | 51.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Hon | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Hon | 38c | 49.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Stakusic | 57c | 49.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…0d03backed Stakusic | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 166 | 57.8%96 W · 70 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Stakusic | 57c | 48.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed Hon | 56c | 48.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 341 | 59.5%203 W · 138 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1793…4ebbbacked Hon | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 940 | 60.6%570 W · 370 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Hon | 44c | 41.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Hon | 32c | 40.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 249 | 31.3%78 W · 171 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f91…8065backed Hon | 64c | 35.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Stakusic | 30c | 35.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f79…ad8abacked Hon | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Hon | 39c | 33.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Hon | 52c | 31.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 219 | 49.3%108 W · 111 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Stakusic | 53c | 30.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Hon | 59c | 28.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Stakusic | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 363 | 49.9%181 W · 182 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…77babacked Stakusic | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Priscilla Hon vs Marina Stakusicthis page
- Hon vs. Stakusic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.